Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 90587.114311 95540.037082 100489.710027 105803.900368 111344.510368 116947.420741 123038.125337
2025-07-06 82051.410833 89599.930101 97352.529756 105899.444807 115047.092144 124533.521705 135104.337796
2025-07-13 77093.280834 86519.227713 96409.059999 107537.768604 119689.835023 132534.523191 147115.593256
2025-07-20 73203.024405 84060.912967 95658.332904 108931.801093 123666.440611 139484.668800 157712.683315
2025-07-27 69685.145886 81658.487298 94649.500005 109739.605745 126731.395404 145218.059864 166795.928435
2025-08-03 66275.246143 79113.593441 93243.479139 109877.640891 128849.636537 149738.519730 174399.627059
2025-08-10 63456.976238 77049.214645 92205.811267 110267.461381 131107.965812 154302.061057 181965.601028
2025-08-17 60778.992066 74989.848532 91032.095966 110367.978174 132920.497769 158270.490554 188790.660523
2025-08-24 59034.448411 73915.480114 90903.928802 111593.325824 135961.027308 163597.552288 197152.151123
2025-08-31 56699.679741 72029.470963 89724.729445 111494.577578 137379.871551 166993.795018 203243.535134
2025-09-07 55409.276027 71325.730802 89883.433977 112924.511590 140556.837340 172416.600966 211700.360073
2025-09-14 53944.445575 70340.754668 89645.575105 113828.153541 143070.081761 177039.231496 219217.268344
2025-09-21 52115.052163 68861.704117 88777.507529 113952.820225 144652.131405 180586.055562 225519.356355
2025-09-28 50349.106287 67399.165115 87875.612636 113989.586139 146094.487055 183950.737988 231610.765224
2025-10-05 49540.769021 67097.978202 88369.978155 115713.989367 149576.493364 189766.537674 240670.291261
2025-10-12 48669.002198 66676.911616 88683.399744 117190.132465 152742.367880 195204.807277 249299.753501
2025-10-19 47558.396794 65907.322862 88524.037862 118046.602234 155124.249275 199685.672044 256780.549172
2025-10-26 46181.390867 64746.517400 87829.085500 118192.900975 156595.517894 203037.980057 262883.524342
2025-11-02 44999.220191 63799.516181 87370.383765 118606.509461 158378.059196 206762.568610 269449.641373
2025-11-09 43741.747586 62712.984971 86696.491943 118713.158679 159749.446449 209965.617239 275373.490612
2025-11-16 43063.980898 62371.393629 86964.522625 120013.288592 162626.199889 215046.862790 283653.435588
2025-11-23 41823.410806 61238.302099 86168.704070 119908.518969 163689.871114 217849.603797 289092.055147
2025-11-30 41313.197040 61073.338640 86627.294505 121425.540330 166831.239106 223273.869165 297846.173683